Module 2 of 12 · Project Finance

On Budget, Still Losing Money

The economic model of a project, and the one relationship that shows whether a project is healthy today.

Illustrated module guide · the complete walkthrough · companion to the Quick Reference

Module Home  ›  Module Overview

A fifteen minute read that connects the two module videos. Keep the Quick Reference open while working through this page, and go deeper in the Field Guide.

One phase, one morning, one hundred thousand dollars

On the Oakhaven Public Safety Campus, the Construction Documents phase is running to plan. The monthly budget report is green. Nothing on the dashboard is flagged. Nothing has been escalated.

But $100,000 of margin has already left the phase, and the difference between the project manager who finds it this week and the one who finds it at closeout is a single question. Not how much has the team spent, but how much has the team actually earned?

That second question is the subject of this module. By the end of it, the question becomes the first one a project manager asks on any project.

The two videos followed a single dollar of revenue and then a project's margin. This lesson follows that $100,000 back to the decisions that created it, from the composition of a fee, through the cost of a single hour, to the point at which effort outruns the value a team has earned. The work is the same work described in Module 1, Outcome #4, Sustained Financial Health, now measured in money.

Where this fitsBehavior Control Advancement · Protect IntegrityOutcome 4 · Sustained Financial HealthLifecycle Spans execution
Reflect · before you begin

Think of a project you have run or supported where the technical work went well and the financial result did not. What was the first sign that the money was moving differently from the work? Now consider the five outcomes named in Module 1. Which one do these two finance videos address?

Outcome #4, Sustained Financial Health. Whatever first sign you named, an overrun that surfaced at closeout, a phase that landed thin, a team that worked hard for a poor result, it was a financial outcome produced by project decisions. Finance is the same work, measured in dollars.
1

Finance and the five outcomes

Module 1 established the five outcomes a project manager owns. This lesson addresses the fourth, sustained financial health. Every outcome a project manager protects carries a cost, because every decision consumes hours and hours become dollars. Protecting the outcomes is how a project manager creates the money that funds the firm's capacity to hire, to invest, and to perform its best work.

2

Where does a dollar of fee actually go?

A large fee and the money Grace earns are two different figures. A substantial share of any fee belongs to other parties long before the firm records a dollar of its own revenue.

StageWhat it is
FeeThe total amount the client pays.
Pass‑throughConsultants, travel, and printing. This money moves through the firm without the firm ever earning it. Strip it out before evaluating anything.
Net Service RevenueThe amount Grace earns with its own people. This is the figure the project manager manages.

Where the net dollar goes

SliceShareWhat it covers
Direct labor~30¢The people performing billable work such as design, drawings, and engineering.
Overhead~50¢Everything the firm cannot invoice to a client, including proposals, reviews, management, rent, software, and insurance.
Profit15 to 20¢Whatever remains once the first two shares are paid. It is the entire reward for the risk of running the project, and the first amount to disappear.

VisualWhere the net dollar goes

After pass‑through is stripped out, every dollar Grace actually earns splits roughly three ways. Profit is the thin share that survives the project, and it is the first share to disappear.

~30¢ labor ~50¢ overhead 15 to 20¢ profit Net service revenue · $1.00 (the part Grace earns with its own people) the reward · first to go
Remember

Profit is the share that survives the project rather than an amount added to it at the end. Every additional hour, every round of rework, and every week a decision sits open consumes part of that 15 to 20¢. Closeout is simply the point at which the firm sees how much of it remains.

3

Why does an hour cost more than a wage?

When the economic model is focused on one hour, it demonstrates how Grace's billing rates are intentionally designed to support the direct labor of the team member, that team member's share of overhead, and a small amount of profit.

ToolBuild the hour · what an hour really costs

The $110 hour from the script is a model rather than a fixed Grace number. Move the wage and the overhead factor, and watch the burdened cost and the billing rate move with them.

Overhead / hr
$70
Breakeven hour
$110
Cost multiplier
2.75×
Target billing rate
$138

Remember

There are no forty dollar hours. Every hour costs approximately 2.75× the wage, which produces the $110 hour on a $40 wage. An hour spent on rework or on the wrong person consumes the 15 to 20¢ of profit.

What the $70 actually buys

That $70 buys real capacity. It funds every proposal the firm pursued and did not win, every software license and seat of design authoring software, every quality review performed by someone who will never invoice the client for it, and every hour of management, recruiting, and business development the firm requires to stay in business. It is the actual cost of keeping the doors open, recovered one billable hour at a time.

How does the firm know the whole book of work is healthy?

The $110 hour states what a single hour costs. Three metrics state whether the firm's entire book of work is healthy, and a project manager moves all three of them through ordinary staffing and scheduling decisions.

U · Utilization

How busy the team is

Direct labor ÷ total labor

The share of every payroll dollar that lands on billable work funded by the client. The remaining share covers management, proposals, and review, the cost of running the firm and the source of the 1.75 overhead factor.

Grace base case: 62.5%

M · Net labor multiplier

How hard each hour works

Net revenue ÷ direct labor

How many revenue dollars each direct labor dollar brings in, and what a billing rate has to deliver. A $40 wage billed near $138 is carrying exactly this number.

Grace base case: 3.44×

R · Revenue factor

The master metric

U × M = net revenue ÷ total labor

Net revenue earned per dollar of total payroll. It rolls the other two metrics into a single score for the firm. On a single project, the simpler read is profitability.

Grace base case: ≈2.15 (≈2.0 at plan)

R = U × M · two dials, one number

When utilization drops, the multiplier must climb to hold the same performance. When utilization rises, the overhead carried by each hour falls, the breakeven hour gets cheaper, and the multiplier eases at the same time. The firm holds R steady. The project manager moves the inputs. Try it:

ToolThe three KPIs · move the dials

A firm controls two levers, which are how busy the team is (utilization) and how much each direct hour earns (multiplier). Watch overhead, the breakeven hour, and the master metric move as you adjust them. Grace base case: U 62.5% · O 1.75 · M 3.44 · R 2.15.

Overhead factor
1.75
Breakeven hour
$110
Revenue factor (U×M)
2.15
Revenue factor 2.15 sits near Grace's approximately 2.15 plan.

Go deeper · the field guide owns the mechanics

Why utilization carries meaning only across a group, the three habits a project manager controls hour by hour, and how the Revenue Factor reads at each level of the firm, all live in the Finance Field Guide.

The $110 hour is a stack of wage, overhead, and profit Wage $40 Overhead +$70 the ×1.75 load Profit $110 · breakeven before a cent of profit $130 to $138 · target bill rate
There are no forty dollar hours. The wage is the block at the bottom of the stack, and about $70 of overhead sits on top of it, covering every proposal, license, and review, reaching the $110 breakeven before any profit at all. Only above that line is there profit, and rework or staffing at the wrong cost consumes it first.

Where does a fee come from?

Reading the money states whether a fee is healthy. Building the fee states where that fee came from. A fee is assembled from the hours up rather than handed down, and it is something a project manager builds. A project manager who has never built one will reduce it on request without learning what the firm gave away.

A fee is built up from the hours. It is the output of the hours, not the input. Scope → tasks hours × role × loaded cost 2.75× = $1.1M to deliver breakeven ÷ (1 − 20%) set the margin $1.4M the fee
Grace assembled the Oakhaven fee from the scope up, and it was built in four steps: scope becomes tasks, tasks become hours by role, hours are costed at the loaded rate of 2.75× the wage to reach a cost to deliver of approximately $1.1M, and that cost is divided by one minus the target margin, a division by 0.80 at a 20% target, to reach the $1.4M fee. A fee a project manager built is a fee that project manager can defend.
Markup and margin are different calculations

Adding 20% to cost produces a margin of approximately 16.7%, not a margin of 20%. $1.1M × 1.20 = $1.32M, and $1.32M carrying $1.1M of cost leaves 16.7%. Holding a true 20% margin requires that the cost be divided by one minus the target margin. The two calculations look almost identical on the page, and on Oakhaven they differ by approximately $80,000.

Answering “Can you do it for $1.2M?” with three real options

A project manager who never built the fee answers that the team will make it work, and commits the firm to approximately an 8% job while believing it is a 20% job. A project manager who built the fee answers the same $1.2M request three specific ways:

Client: “Can you do it for $1.2M?” 1 · Trim the scope Less work, to match the lower fee. Margin stays ~20% 2 · Thinner margin · on purpose Same scope. A choice to earn less. ~8% · a decision 3 · Find efficiency Lower what it costs to deliver. Margin holds The same $1.2M · three different business decisions. The variable is which one was made on purpose.
A number a project manager built is a number that project manager can move on purpose. “Hold the line and defend the build” is the posture underneath all three. A silent fourth option exists, dropping $200,000 and continuing to report a 20% margin, and it damages both the project and the firm.
This fee returns in Module 4

In Module 4 a project manager steps into a fee someone else built, and rebuilds it backward to take ownership of it. In the Planning Studio (Modules 5 and 6) a project manager builds one forward: scope → tasks → hours → dollars, the same chain that makes a fee defensible.

A second number on the project manager’s desk · go deeper

The fee is what Grace earns. The Opinion of Probable Construction Cost, the OPCC, is what the building costs to construct, and it carries real exposure for a project manager who treats it casually. Carrying the OPCC as a tightening range, disclaiming it properly, and reconciling it against the Owner’s budget at every phase is a discipline of its own. The OPCC is the Owner’s money, and it is covered in Module 3’s Finance Field Guide.

4

How does margin leave a project that still looks green?

A project manager holds two numbers side by side at all times. Effort = hours charged × the cost of an hour. Earned value = the percent of the work truly finished × the fee. Margin is the distance between them.

When effort runs ahead of earned value, margin is leaving the project, and the budget report will not show that loss, since spend and earnings are two different numbers. The distance between them is the Margin Gap.

?Green, or leaking?

Think of a phase you are running right now. Estimate two numbers before reading further, the percent of the work truly finished and the percent of the fee already spent. Now consider a phase that is 60% complete with 55% of the fee spent, on schedule, with a satisfied client. Is that phase healthy?

Spend alone cannot answer the question. If the team has truly earned 60% of the fee for that 55% spent, the phase is healthy. If effort has outrun earned value, the difference is margin leaving now. Whatever two numbers you estimated, the distance between them is the only figure that matters, and it is the figure the budget report does not print. Use the tool below to see it.
Finished work earns value

Earned value measures the work that would still be done if the project stopped today. A team can spend forty honest hours reworking a drawing around a decision that remains open and earn almost nothing, since the effort was real and the finished work was not. Hours measure consumption. Finished work measures progress.

Earned value and cost advance in parallel

Two quantities advance in parallel across the life of a project, one being the value the team has earned, the other being the cost the team has spent. A healthy project keeps the first of them ahead of the second. When cost moves ahead of earned value, the distance between the two is the Margin Gap, and profit leaves the project through that distance. Keeping earned value ahead of cost is the job.

From Module 1

The Margin Gap is not slow work and it is not bad pricing. It opens when work keeps advancing against a decision that is still open, a failure of Control Advancement, now measured in dollars.

Two ways to read the same report

The Competent Coordinator checks the budget, confirms that half the fee is spent and the schedule is on track, and moves on. The Accountable Owner reads the same report and asks the one question that protects margin: how much value has the team actually earned? Two project managers read identical numbers and reach opposite conclusions, and becoming the second one is the work of this module.

Worked example · Oakhaven and Grace’s $1.4M fee

Oakhaven’s total design fee is $2.8M, of which Grace’s net portion, the fee the project manager manages, is $1.4M (consultants carry the rest).

MomentThe numbers
Priced right~$1.1M cost / ~$300k profit / ~20%
Partway through$600k earned / $700k spent
Margin Gap, live$100k

Caught at a $20k gap rather than $100k, the phase recovers to a margin near 20%. Left alone, the same phase finishes with minimal profit, an exhausted team, and a client who never heard the word red.

ToolRun the phase · find the Margin Gap

This tool illustrates Grace’s $1.4M Oakhaven fee from the video. Set how far along the work truly is and how much the team has spent, then watch effort move ahead of earned value.

Earned value (% complete × fee)$600k
Effort spent$700k
Margin Gap
$100k
Projected end margin
−17%
Effort is ahead of earned value, so margin is leaving the project.

The projected end margin assumes the current pace holds. Caught early, at a small gap, the phase can still land on target.

Where this lives in BST11

The video presented the model. The screen the Oakhaven team opens is the My Projects Review tab of the BST11 Project and Resource Management dashboard, with its Project Scorecard across the top. Every number is keyed below to a term from this lesson. The column to watch is Variance④. It sets what the team has earned next to what the team has spent and prints the difference, which makes the Margin Gap a column that can be seen.

Project and Resource ManagementMy Projects Review| My Projects Trends & Status| My Portfolio AlertsRestrictions ▾Project StatusActiveProject Manager002187 - Dana ReyesCurrency TypeProject CurrencyProjectGRC-26-0142 OakhavenView: Phase breakdownProject Scorecard · Oakhaven Public Safety Campus, by Phase (5)Grace Net Service Fee · $1,400,000PhaseBudget Effort1Revenue2Effort3Variance4NLM5Profit6Sched Var DaysReceivable DaysUnbilled Days7Schematic Design20% of fee · Complete280,000.00280,000.00224,000.0056,000.003.43750056,000.00000Design Development20% of fee · Complete280,000.00280,000.00224,000.0056,000.003.43750056,000.00000Construction Documents35% of fee · In progress490,000.00300,000.00400,000.00-100,000.002.062500-163,333.33-7021Bidding & Negotiation5% of fee · Not started70,000.0014,000.00000Construction Administration20% of fee · Not started280,000.0056,000.00000TOTAL · project to date1,400,000.00860,000.00848,000.0012,000.002.78891518,666.67-7021Active Tasks With Negative Variance · Construction Documents (1)Task NameBudget EffortTD RevenueTD EffortTD VarianceETC hrsCD — MEP equipment coordination120,000.0070,000.00118,000.00-48,000.00210.00Total-48,000.00Aged Unbilled Tasks > 30 Days (1)Task31-6061-9091-120>121TotalCD — Permitting revisions18,400.000.000.000.0018,400.00Total18,400.00Reading the scorecard · what each number represents1BUDGET EFFORTThe fee. Planned Value = the phase'sslice of the $1.4M.2REVENUEEarned Value · the fee the team hasactually earned to date.3EFFORTActual Cost to date · what the team hasspent (labor at rate + expense).4VARIANCERevenue − Effort = the live margin.Negative = the Margin Gap.5NLMNet Labor Multiplier · revenue earnedper $1 of raw labor (target 3.2 to 3.4).6PROFITProjected profit at completion · wherethe phase lands if today's pace holds.7SCHED / RECEIVABLE / UNBILLED DAYSDays ahead of or behind schedule, and days cash sits unbilled or uncollected,the basis for billing & collection realization targets.The Margin Gap is column ④ (Variance)A budget report shows only Effort ③ (spent). This dashboard sets Revenue ② (earned value) beside it and prints the difference as Variance ④.Construction Documents reads −$100,000, which is margin leaving now, against a project total that still shows green at +$12,000. Profit ⑥ projects CD at −$163k if the pace holds.
Oakhaven project scorecard in BST11, the $1.4M fee broken into its five phases. Budget Effort ① = the fee · Revenue ② = earned value · Effort ③ = cost to date · Variance ④ = Earned − Spent = live margin (negative = the Margin Gap) · NLM ⑤ = net labor multiplier · Profit ⑥ = projected profit at completion. The day columns ⑦ underlie billing & collection targets. CD is mid‑flight and underwater against a project total that still shows green. Illustrative training data on the locked Oakhaven fee.

The same screen, the way BST11 labels it

The scorecard above uses plain English teaching labels so the ideas land clearly. Below is the identical Oakhaven data in the exact columns BST11 prints, drawn from the My Projects Review tab of the Project & Resource Management dashboard. Learn these words, because they are the words on the screen the team opens.

Project Scorecard · Oakhaven Public Safety Campus, by Phase (5)Budget Effort · $1,400,000.00
PhaseBudget EffortEffortEffort % CompleteEffort RemainingRevenueRevenue % CompleteEffort Performance IndexVarianceVariance At Completion
Schematic DesignComplete280,000.00224,000.0080.000056,000.00280,000.00100.00001.250056,000.0056,000.00
Design DevelopmentComplete280,000.00224,000.0080.000056,000.00280,000.00100.00001.250056,000.0056,000.00
Construction DocumentsIn progress490,000.00400,000.0081.632790,000.00300,000.0061.22450.7500-100,000.00-163,333.33
Bidding & NegotiationNot started70,000.00  70,000.00    14,000.00
Construction AdministrationNot started280,000.00  280,000.00    56,000.00
TOTAL · project to date1,400,000.00848,000.0060.5714552,000.00860,000.0061.42861.014212,000.0018,666.67
Same numbers, BST11's words. The teaching view's Margin Gap is BST11's Variance (Revenue − Effort). Its projected profit at completion is Variance At Completion (Budget Effort − Effort At Completion). Construction Documents reads −$163,333.33 against a project total that still holds +$18,666.67. Effort Performance Index (Revenue ÷ Effort) is the fastest health check on the screen: a value above 1.0 is healthy, a value below 1.0 means effort is outrunning revenue, and CD sits at 0.7500. NLM is a firm metric rather than a scorecard column, and the day figures appear under Receivable Days and Unbilled Days.
Open the full BST11 Dashboard Explainer

All three tabs with live data. Oakhaven across My Projects Review and Trends & Status, and the firm‑wide My Portfolio Alerts, every column named the way the software names it.

Forecasting where the phase will land

Profit ⑥ on that screen is a forecast rather than a record, since EAC (estimate at completion) = spend to date + the cost of the work that remains. At the current pace, CD has spent $400k to earn $300k, which projects to approximately $653k against its $490k share of the fee, and that projection is the −$163k printed in the Profit column. Found now, that number is a recovery plan. Discovered at closeout, it is a write‑off. The levers run in a fixed order: close the open decision that is generating the rework, restaff the remaining work to the rate the fee supports, rescope what is left to the fee that is left, and price whatever the client has changed since the fee was built.

Hourly and T&M work uses the same scorecard with one extra step

Everything above assumes a fixed fee. Hourly and T&M work runs on the identical scorecard, but it needs an Effort Projection, the planned value of the work, entered before the work starts. Without that projection, Budget Effort reads zero and Variance carries no meaning. On a fixed fee the projection already exists, since the fee is locked to the invoicing ceiling by contract. On hourly work the project manager builds the projection and can flex the invoicing ceiling as the work develops, since the client is billed for hours actually spent. The planning discipline is the same either way, which is why a negative Variance on hourly work is a signal to check the projection rather than proof the firm is losing margin. Full walkthrough in the Finance Field Guide.

The plan behind it · earning the fee over time

The scorecard captures one moment. Phasing also gives a baseline, the curve showing how the fee is planned to be earned across the schedule. Every week, a project manager compares what the team has actually earned against the point the curve calls for.

Earned Value S curve · how Grace earns the $1.4M feeHow the team planned to earn the fee. Flat where the work pauses for review, since a project earns no new value while a review period is open.0%$020%40%60%80%100%Cumulative fee earnedProgramming + SDReviewDesign DevelopmentReviewConstruction DocumentsReviewBidding + CA(during construction)023671112Month → (12-month design schedule)100%20% · $280k40% · $560k75% · $1.05MProject Earned Value PlanNow · mid‑CD$860k earned, on the curveand $848k already spent (see dashboard)
Planned earned value curve · Oakhaven’s 12 month design schedule. Programming + SD (2 mo) → 20%, review. DD (3 mo) → 40%, review. CD (4 mo) → 75%, review. The curve runs flat through each review, since no new value is earned while a review period is open, and steepens through the heavy middle, producing the characteristic S. Bidding & CA earn the final 25% later, during construction (dashed). Each shaded band below the curve matches the phase strip beneath it, so the color climbs with the fee.
Reading the shape of the curve

The Project Manager restrains the pace of work in the early phases, where uncertainty is high and the key decisions remain open, drives the work through the middle once those decisions are locked, and then curtails effort late, in anticipation of QA/QC and client review time. The S shape of the curve is the result of deliberate management.

5

The four patterns in finance

The project manager who closed the dashboard at the opening of this lesson and the project manager who would have caught the $100,000 are the first and last cards below, the Competent Coordinator who read spend, and the Accountable Owner who read earned value. The work is moving from the first to the last, avoiding the two failure modes in between.

The Competent Coordinator

Tendency
Tracks the budget report faithfully every month, reads the number the firm formally produces, and closes the dashboard satisfied.
Blind spot
Never once sets earned value beside spend, so the report reads green over a phase that is leaking.
Preferred behavior
A weekly comparison of earned value to effort, in place of a monthly reading of the budget alone.

The Obsessed Designer

Tendency
Wants the best people and the best design on the work.
Blind spot
Keeps an expensive principal on production well past the point the fee supports, and refines beyond what the client bought, collapsing the realized rate.
Preferred behavior
Staff to the rate, and stop at the earned value line.

The People Pleaser

Tendency
Keeps the client comfortable.
Blind spot
Absorbs scope changes rather than raising them, giving away the profit slice one change at a time.
Preferred behavior
Name the change, price it, and offer the client a clear choice.

The Accountable Owner

Stance
Treats every hour as a financial decision and every staffing call as a margin decision.
Watch-out
A green budget report is a statement about spend rather than a statement about health.
The standard
Staffs to the rate, watches earned value, and prices what changes.
6

Put it to work

Your one tool this week

Open the Quick Reference and read your own project’s BST scorecard the way section 4 read Oakhaven’s: set Revenue (earned) beside Effort (spent) and find the Variance between them. That single habit puts this module to work on a Monday morning.

On your throughline project
  1. Estimate effort to date and earned value (the percent truly complete × the fee).
  2. Determine whether effort runs ahead of earned value or behind it. Effort ahead of earned value is the Margin Gap, found while you can still close it.
  3. Name the decision that created the gap, whether an open question, a staffing choice, or absorbed scope, and act on it this week.
  4. Run the forecast that assumes the current pace holds, spend ÷ percent truly complete, and see where the phase lands. If the projected margin falls under target, choose your first recovery lever this week.
Challenge · from memory

?Challenge · from memory.

What does an hour cost relative to the wage, and what exactly is the Margin Gap?

An hour costs about 2.75× the wage, which is the $110 hour on a $40 wage. The Margin Gap is the distance by which effort (spent) runs ahead of earned value. It is margin leaving a project whose budget report still shows green.

Then do

Act as the second project manager. Open the report and ask what the team has earned, not just what it has spent, while the gap is still small enough to close.

“A budget report states what a team has spent. Earned value states what the team has produced. Margin lives in the distance between them.”   Watch the module videos →

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